Radek Orság provided E15 with insights into the turbulent last year in the solar business. From the interview, we selected the most crucial information and also looked back at the year 2023. The market development is indeed very dynamic, so we will update the information from the article.
About technology prices
The prices of panels were the cheapest in history at the end of the year. After the pandemic, too many panels were produced in China, which do not have sufficient sales. Additionally, anti-dumping duties in the USA contributed to this, redirecting products to Europe, money became more expensive, and electricity cheaper. This all led to overcrowded warehouses in Rotterdam and a price war among manufacturers. For Czech customers, now is the most appropriate time to buy technology.
Although we assumed that the extremely low prices would last a few more quarters, we are already seeing price increases. January brings the sell-out of Rotterdam's warehouses, hence panel prices are already rising. Manufacturers will now want to reach prices that cover at least the production costs.
About the reflection of technology prices in the implementation costs
For residential implementations, the price drop is less noticeable. This is because the price of the panels themselves constitutes only about 10-15% of the entire implementation cost. The rest of the price is made up of batteries, inverters, and labor. And labor itself is also becoming more expensive. Therefore, a more significant price drop is seen in commercial implementations, where the ratio of panel price to total cost is much higher. Here, we see a price drop of even up to 20%.
About technological development
In the Czech Republic, PERC-type solar cell panels still prevail, but TOPCON technology is coming to the forefront and will dominate in 2024. Although it is only slightly more expensive per watt of power, it is more efficient and will gradually become cheaper. The next phase of development could be heterojunction technology, which is a method of layering differently modified silicon on top of each other, or back-contact technologies (IBC, ABC). Thanks to these trends, we can expect that the efficiency of panels will soon increase from the current maximum of 23% to 25%.
About the development of inverter and battery prices
Inverter prices have been steady for a long time, and there does not seem to be a decrease in the future. Batteries will probably become slightly cheaper at the beginning of the year, but further development is hard to predict.
About SOLSOL's market position
Exact data is hard to calculate. The market has become very fragmented, but we estimate that we supply products to 20% of the panel market. We supply more than 10% to the inverter and battery market.
About the new service Alfred.energy
We launched the first commercial version of our app Alfred.energy, which helps hundreds of people smartly manage the energy they produce, sell excess on the spot market, and healthily control their power plant. So far, it is accessible to users with a Growatt inverter, but in the next phase, we want to open this service to all users of the main residential inverter manufacturers. We believe this will be in the second half of 2024. We are aiming for tens of thousands of users.